Three Types of Traders

Contrary Thinker on the old school market gurus

There are three kinds of traders in the world of equity, commodity and financial markets, I call them Larry’s, Curly’s and Moe’s.

The Larry types (Larry Fine) do not know that there are three types; when told, it is an abstraction, because they cannot imagine anything beyond themselves, i.e., Larryness.

The Curly profiles (Curly Howard) know about the three types, and recognize it as it is a pecking order, but he finds ways of living with it cheerfully … for they are the imaginative, creative ones.

The Moe characters (Moe Howard) not only know about theses archetypes, but they exploit and perpetuate them.

Among these three types of market analyst, the naïve, pleasant new agers, the net generation, the millennium babies they are Larry’s, they are a normal man on Main Street At Large. They are mainly ineffectual, well-meaning do-gooders destined always to be victims, often without once guessing their status.

They don’t have a clue of the difference between the primary and secondary markets or that the secondary market drives the economy not the other way around.

Like sheep, they do not know of or do they want to hear the unpleasant legends of the bear market of ’72 through '74. They think that the panic of ’87, ’97 or ’01 did not create fortunes; and they would rather forget about the WFC. In fact, they can’t say World Financial Crisis; they have to refer to it by its initials.

For Larry, the mini-crash of 2011, was just a bad bit of data, and they continue to trust the strange two-legged beings who feed them.

The second type, is the artists, the unsung scientific geniuses, the statisticians and the earnest disciples of stranger cults, they are Curly Joes. They are the engaging, original, accident prone traders. They are intuitively aware of the Moe forces against them and try to fight back.

However, they can never defeat the Moe’s, without becoming a Moe themselves, which is impossible for the true Curly. The are the true battlers who are just happy to break even.

The Moe’s, are the fanatics, the ranters, the ravers, the trading gurus, George Soros, the market wizards, Monroe Trouts or Marty Schwartz. Plus the debunkers of the old school ways, Nick Hanauer and Jack Cahn they are the Renaissance leaders.

They hate each other, but only because they want to control ALL the Larry’s and Curly’s for a profit. They don’t enjoy their dominance; it’s simply part of their nature. Nor are they any less foolish for the fact that they make the decisions.

They suffer a chronic paranoia that is unknown to their less demanding underlings.

Larry and Curly lose money big time in speculative bubbles started by rival Moe’s; the Larry’s do so willingly, the Curly’s do so with great regret, they see it coming but can’t help themselves.

Concepts like “overbought/oversold” or “impulse wave” or “market sentiment” were invented and marketed by Curly to keep Larry’s providing liquidity to the markets.

The Curley's invent the myths of Elliott Wave Theory, Optimal F-theory, high-Frequency trading, random walk theory and of course efficient frontier theory. All of which throws the more rebellious Curly’s into creative debates about theory, which has little to do with trading or risk and opportunity management. Meanwhile, Larry remains focused on media forecast and unsure about the correct strategy that fits the context of the market.

I am a Moe, though not a particularly powerful or well-known one. That is why I dare to tell you these things I know. Some of you will think it’s just a funny joke or that I am just poking fun.

A few will know the above is the truth, but will fight far harder against my Curly enemies than you will against me, a generous Moe who educates and informs -on a fee basis, of course, Hell, I’m a red-blooded capitalist.

A Contrary Thinker and my fellow Moe allies will know what I’m REALLY saying, and chuckle in appreciation. Contrary Thinker know that forecast is old school and only makes a market and is as useless as a crystal ball.

Contrary Thinker is a new school, we put risk and opportunity management to the left-hand side of a strategy; and its based on price, not money. There is no need to forecast when you can see turning points of any proportions when they are occurring and know their meaningfulness based on the context from which they are coming.