MarketMap™
The September 10 to 14 window called the turn. Now the downtrend enters its third wave, the fast leg that strands the crowd.
Last week the forecast was that the dull trading was about to end. The window was September 10 through 14, and any pullback inside it looked likely to produce a lower high on Friday the 11th or Monday the 14th, with the decline accelerating out of it. By Thursday the read was clear enough to say so: that day's countertrend looked like one of the last rallies the market would offer to sell into, the mood was turning sour into Friday, and the downtrend already in force appeared ready to enter its third wave, the fast leg that leaves the crowd standing at the station with an order that never fills.
Behind the short- to intermediate-term forecast sits the larger scenario laid out here all year. This bull is old and finishing, the tops came in on FOMO readings, and what follows is not a garden-variety correction but the front edge of a structural turn: hyper-stagflation, rates working higher into November, money leaving the intangibles that have led since 2009 and moving into tangibles and hard capital, with a currency dislocation out of Japan as the most likely trigger.
The consensus is not positioned for it, which is precisely why it pays. That is to say, their reaction will be emotional, to be taken advantage of.