MarketMap™
The textbook has not confirmed this decline. That silence is the edge, because by the time it signs off, the crowd is already late.
The Confirmation Has Not Arrived — And That Is the Point
The textbook has not signed off on this decline yet. No death cross between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. No long-bar decline day. No session where the number of declines have swamped advances by the kind of margin that gets written up in the evening Wall Street wrap-up.
That is exactly the condition in which the Contrary Thinker prefers to be. Ahead of the crowd. By the time the textbook confirms a downtrend, the trade will likely appear as too late to the majority, in the time when strategies for those of us who are on the front foot will be leveraging up our positions.
Instead of being hung up on the old school, we'll be looking for the context of the market: the likely dynamics to expect until the trend culminates. A situation that provides the liquidity for our team to exit into.
What we are reading is the Technical Event Model (TEM), our volatility engine — and it has been busy.