MarketMap™
Bull markets have copper roofs. The banks are the last bastion of the 2009 bull, and their rate of change is already fading.
Bull markets have copper roofs.
MarketMap™ came into late August looking for a low-risk inflection point, i.e., a lower high. This particular date, August 25 plus or minus a day, a pivot on the right-hand side of the all-time high that our timing models strongly suggested a change of mood date.
Price-wise, market structure is bearish and in gear for the majority of the averages, especially the high tech. Only one sector has held anywhere near its all-time highs, and that is the banks and brokers. They are seemingly the last bastion defending the great bull market that began in 2009.
Unlike the triple Q, the bank sector, while showing early signs of weakness with its rate of change fading, in clear descent since June, and its daily RSI not confirming the new highs, its price structure allows one more challenge of the upper channel line seen on the weekly chart.
Meanwhile, smart money is reading from our bearish page. Stanley Druckenmiller sees the flaws in what the Treasury Department is implementing, and that is not a good sign. It arrives in the same time window in which we were calling for a Change of Trend (COT) from the right-hand side of the ATH pivot. It is low risk because any move above the ATH precludes the scenario.
Alongside the Treasury news comes audacity out of the White House, stirring a new trade war with our best friends to the north. And if patterns persist, it'll be another taco. However, it's all up to the markets and how they react, which will dictate whether or not it turns into a taco. If you're not familiar with that acronym, it means Trump always chickens out. And Canada has given them time because their counter tariffs do not go into play until September 8.
We'll see what the market focuses on, whether it's the taco or whether not how Ottawa has already reached out and started a new five-year plan that ignores the United States.
CapEx is one of the main reasons you should buy stuff, not intangibles.
If you've followed Contrary Thinker this far, we probably see the world the same way.
On May 19, 2026, we published the copper setup. Southern Copper (SCCO) was sitting under 170. The Technical Event Model had the market in TE#4, Trade the Break. That reading does not forecast direction. It tells you that when the break comes, price carries instead of reversing back into the range. The horizontal triangle on the chart called for one more thrust, and the breakout level was set at 195.
Recommended position: June 5, 2026 165 calls, entered at $10.20 mid on May 19, 2026.
What happened next
- May 28, 2026: SCCO traded 193.11. The calls were bid 27.20. That is 167% above entry in nine days.
- June 2, 2026: SCCO hit 200.00. The thrust completed on schedule.
- June through early August 2026: the market did exactly what a completed thrust should do. It consolidated, working sideways between roughly 158 and 200 for two months.
- August 21, 2026: a breakaway gap carried price up and through intermediate-term resistance at 201.62.
- Today, August 25, 2026: SCCO is 220.67, up 6.42 on the session, 2.99%.
The options trade was short-term by design and it is closed. Options are not part of our published track record. The forecast underneath it is not closed, and that is the part worth your attention.
Where we are now
The gap above 201.62 is not a routine advance. A breakaway gap through intermediate-term resistance, after a two-month consolidation that held its base, is the market announcing that the pause is finished. Wave i is complete off the July low, wave ii held, and the current leg is trading above every reference level on the chart.
Our longer-term target of 235 to 240 remains open. We stay bullish.
Why copper, and why now
Copper is not a commodity story this cycle. It is an infrastructure story.
A single hyperscale data center consumes roughly 65 tons of copper. Every rack, every busbar, every transformer, every foot of cable feeding a GPU cluster is copper. The buildout schedule for the next two to three years is already committed capital, and it is not sensitive to the price of the metal. The buyers need it regardless.
Copper traded at $6.50 a pound this year, the highest print in its history. That is what happens when inelastic demand meets a supply chain that takes a decade to add a mine.
The market is pricing the semiconductor. It has not finished pricing what the semiconductor plugs into.
You saw the setup nine days before the breakout. Members saw the entry.
Most traders are not wrong about direction. They are wrong about timing. They see the thesis, they agree with the thesis, and they get in after the move has already paid.
Strategy and Tactics closes that gap. Members received the copper entry on May 19, 2026, at a specific price, with a specific stop, before the breakout confirmed on May 28.
What you are paying for:
- CMT credentialed. 37 years running this discipline. Contrary Thinker since 1989.
- The full analytical stack: Advanced Technical Analysis, Traditional Elliott Wave, volatility modeling, contrarian sentiment modeling, and historical cycle work. Every method empirically tested, hard-coded for validity, and triangulated against the others before a trade goes live.
- The MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner, updated as conditions shift, not after the fact.
- Real-time positioning. Entries, targets, stops, and the reasoning behind each one.
- Direct line to the author. Not a support desk. The same person calling the cycle.
The copper thesis has more room. So does the rest of the 2026 map.
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Contrary Thinker insuring your future in the global equity markets.
Great and many thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker™ since 1989
Copyright 1989-2026
All-inclusive analytical method: Astrological and Historical Cycles, Advanced Technical Analysis, Traditional EWT, Volatility modeling, Contrarian sentiment modeling. All empirically tested with technical methods hard coded and tested for validity.
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