Chance Favors the Collective Mind

Chance favors the collective mind.

The goal of Contrary Thinker from the outset was to move beyond the idea of individual trading, the self-created trading strategy to an all-embracing trading system of institutional quality.

There is a big difference between the two. The former is created by an individual in a vacuum, many times simply trolling the web scavenging for no-charge trading concepts. Whereas a winning system is created by through collaboration.

The key difference between the two should be clear. The strategies that retail to the public are the creation of sole traders, self-studied individuals.

Whereas systems created by a team effort resemble the work produced by institutions.

What used only to be accomplished inside the walls of major corporations like J.P. Morgan Asset Management or Soros Fund Management, can be accomplished today by people connected in a collaborative online space.

What gives a Contrary Thinker an advantage is knowing that better trading is about solving problems not covering them up with some content marketing. This is where the old business model based on the assumption that 90% of traders are a loser because they are “hard wired to fail” and I part company.

Facebook is a good example of social sharing BUT not as a collaboration tool for businesses and entrepreneurs. There are groups both public and private linked off individual’s business pages. But they are all hunting grounds for financial service vendors baiting each new generation of perceived “greater fools” to buy into the same old tried and true marketing story.

If social media like Facebook, Twitter and WordPress are replacing traditional media outlets like CNBC and Bloomberg, but the message from the old school is the same no matter the media used to grab the public’s attention.

People over the years have just bought into the hype that most people fail at trading because most people are emotionally weak. However, they can beat the market if they trust the source that tells them how they are a loser and to buy their advisory or individual trading strategy.

People have been burnt so often by this that they have given up the building of knowledge and replaced it with cynicism and in some cases criminal acts stealing what they can’t afford.

Many traders are cynical to the extent that they think if someone had a good idea they would not share it and in fact not even sell it because they could turn the trading profits into a fortune and would not need to sell the system.

Contrary Thinker could not disagree more. Here is how Contrary Thinker has broken away from the self-created market strategies. Here is how we broke out of the corporate walls of brokerage firms. A Contrary Thinker builds collectively to create one of the most complete stables of winning trading strategies in the industry. Moreover, it created a priced based model, wrapper- that gives each strategy rules of engagement for hedge fund quality risk and opportunity control.

Contrary Thinker understands how the majority think about sharing and we feel that if a trader wants to succeed, he needs to break out of the mindset that he's the lone ranger and can do it on his own.

It does not matter if you are the person providing the idea or the person receiving the strategy idea, it is the behavior of pilfering that nags at them

“What if someone steals the strategy if it is a good system they could make millions?” People think it can’t be a good system. Otherwise, it would not be shared, and if it is a good system and I can get my hands on it, I rip it off and make a fortune for myself.

The truth is, a good strategy remains just an idea unless someone does the work to execute it successfully.

The world is full of stories about trading systems similar in nature, like breakout systems. Yet it is the effective execution that determines succeed or failure.

We are all human, and everyone wants to dream about the secret formula used by floor traders to scalp a fortune, and the industry peddles to that emotion generation after generation.

In really good ideas are a dime a dozen.

A lot of people, when they come up with a trading idea, they keep it inside. They don’t want anybody to “steal” their idea. What I have found is that giving a good trading strategy to anyone, in general, is like giving a loaded gun to a baby.

It’s all in the execution.

If you take the act of stealing off the table, there are still very valid fears behind the complicated psychology of sharing and crowdsourcing ideas.

Some people are touchy feely about opening their idea up to review or being challenged.

So they keep the trading idea close to the vest, so they are at liberty to daydream about it.

Trading system vendors get defensive about trying to prove the strategies value. However, when fear of criticism wins, a system developer miss out on collecting feedback that can bring an idea to the next level and make it a greater success.

Winning trader’s and system developers have to deal with changes to their precious idea and not view anyone in their team as competition.

What a Contrary Thinker wants are ideas that suggest improvements or overcome problems like a directional bias. It’s natural to feel ownership over an idea, just stay mindful of its limiting impact on improvements.

When you believe in your abilities, you also believe in your ideas. You aren’t concerned about whether other people approve or if you are considered the expert.

Contrary Thinker shares out of a desire to build the best library of trading systems in the industry with the best education and support its team and subscribers. For the sheer success of a strategy and seeing that put money in the pocket of its subscribers.

The new business model that the brokerage side of the industry will never adhere to is the application of the numbers game to ideas, not new clients. Instead of burning through a book of new accounts by the hundreds each year, Contrary Thinker burns through hundreds of strategy ideas every year building on the ones with merit and archiving the rest.

Contrary Thinker engages any of its subscribers to collaborate on the code we share each month so that nothing worthy is gathering dust.

If you have only done some casual reading on trading markets, you may have heard about the psychological pitfalls traders fall into as they lose money to the industry. Now you have heard the same list of personal fears to overcome them by working with a group of people who have thew same goal as you, to control and understand a winning trading system.

Where this breaks down

• [Draft , Jack to add failure modes and conditions under which this framework breaks down]